DRAFT ALPHA
LIVE DRAFT INTELLIGENCE NOT ANOTHER CHEAT SHEET

ADP tells you what the room thinks.
Draft Alpha tells you what to do.

Value fantasy players like stock options. Simulate the season. Price the room. Build a roster that balances floor, upside, and the only thing that matters: the odds of winning your league.

TRY THE LIVE DEMO →SEE WHY ADP FAILS
✓ Roster-aware valuation✓ Opponent pick prediction✓ Repriced live
DRAFT ALPHA
TERMINALDRAFT BOARDMARKET
LIVE · PICK 3.04
DRAFT FLOWYOUR PICK IN 4
3.04Malik NabersWR · Mile High Club
3.05PROJECTING…Fourth & Wrong
3.06PROJECTING…Gridiron Fund
3.07PROJECTING…Sunday Volatility
DRAFT ALPHA LEADERSFOR YOUR ROSTER
PLAYERVALUEALPHALASTS
T1TEBrock Bowers96.4+1.6pp68%
T1RBJahmyr Gibbs95.8+1.4pp22%
T2WRCeeDee Lamb91.2+0.8pp71%
T3QBLamar Jackson87.6+0.3pp84%
DRAFT INTELLIGENCEREPRICED NOW
UNDERVALUED · TAKE NOWBrock BowersTE
MARKET 26MODEL 14−12 PICKS
P10 168MED 231P90 308
TEAM FIT94/100LASTS TO 4.0931%

Scarce at a thin position, and two teams ahead of your next turn still need a tight end.

RISK / RETURN FRONTIERBALANCED
UPSIDEFLOOR
BOWERS
GIBBS
EFFICIENT PICKS
ROOM MOVEDRepricing Tee Higgins across 6 projected turns…
// 01 THE PROBLEM

ADP is a receipt.
Not a strategy.

Average Draft Position tells you where players were taken. Platform projections tell you a single expected season. Neither one knows your roster, your opponents, or whether those projected points will ever make it into your starting lineup.

THE OLD WAY

Draft the highest name on a generic list.

  • 01One ranking for every rosterSTATIC
  • 02One projection hides the rangeFLAT
  • 03Bench points count like real pointsFALSE
  • 04Hope a player falls back to youGUESS
ADP 31.4 → “GOOD VALUE”
THE DRAFT ALPHA WAY

Price the decision in front of you.

  • 01Value changes with your rosterLIVE
  • 02Floor and upside stay visibleRANGE
  • 03Startability is part of the priceREAL
  • 04Survival odds replace hopeMODELED
TAKE NOW +1.6pp TITLE EQUITY
0OPPONENT ROSTERS
PRICED WITH YOURS
0UPCOMING TURNS
PROJECTED LIVE
0LINEUP WEEKS
SIMULATED
<0msFAST-BOARD
UPDATE TARGET
// 02 THE DIFFERENCE

A projection is one outcome.
We price the range.

Players are payouts, not point estimates. We simulate the floor, the ceiling, and every path between—then price what that distribution does for your roster.

THE BETTER QUESTIONNot “How many points will he score?”“How much of this payout can my lineup actually capture?”
MONTE CARLO · SEASON PAYOUT

Jayden Daniels QB

PATHS PRICED0
P10
278
MEDIAN
344
P90
411
240 PTS340 PTS440 PTS
EXPECTED STARTS14.1UPSIDE LEVERAGEHIGHROSTER-ADJUSTED ALPHA+1.9pp

Each bar is a cluster of simulated seasons—not a single-point projection.

// 03 THE ENGINE

Wall Street math.
Draft-night decisions.

We price uncertain fantasy payouts with the same core ideas finance uses to balance return, risk, and scarce capital.

SIMPLIFIED PUBLIC MODELILLUSTRATIVE · NOT PRODUCTION LOGIC
PRICE THE PAYOUT

A player is a range of outcomes.

We value the whole scoring distribution—floor, median, ceiling, and the chance those points improve your actual lineup.

10,000SEASON PATHS
MARKET UNIVERSE · PUBLIC EQUITIESDRAFT UNIVERSE · EFFICIENT PICKS
EXPECTED PAYOUT / RISK
EXPECTED RETURNVOLATILITY / ROSTER RISK
B. BOWERSC. LAMBJ. GIBBSJ. ALLENJ. DANIELSB. ROBINSON
PRICING 500+ ASSETS6 PICKS SURVIVE THE FRONTIER
// 04 THE ROOM

Your opponents are
part of the price.

“Will he make it back?” is not a vibe. It is a probability that changes with every roster between you and your next turn. Draft Alpha tracks positional needs, open lineup slots, and the players each team is most likely to take.

  • 01 Predict the picks before your next turn
  • 02 See the teams most likely to take your target
  • 03 Compare the cost of taking him now versus waiting
PICKS BEFORE YOU · LIVE MODEL
PICK / TEAMNEEDSMOST LIKELYODDS
3.08 · Goal Line StandRB WRJames Cook · RB42%
3.09 · Sunday ScariesTE WRBrock Bowers · TE58%
3.10 · Waiver CapitalWR QBCeeDee Lamb · WR47%
3.11 · Zero RB LLCRB RBJahmyr Gibbs · RB71%
BROCK BOWERS SURVIVAL TO 4.0637%

Take now. Waiting creates more expected loss than the next-best alternative.

// 05 YOUR STRATEGY

Pick the mandate.
The Assistant executes it.

Tell Draft Alpha how you want to build. The Assistant translates that strategy into the best available move, explains the trade, and updates the plan after every pick.

DRAFT ALPHA ASSISTANTBALANCE THE PORTFOLIO
RECOMMENDATION · PICK 3.06TAKE NOW
TE

Brock Bowers

+1.6pp TITLE EQUITY

Buy the scarce edge now.

Bowers adds immediate lineup value with asymmetric positional upside. Two opponents before your next turn still need a tight end.

SURVIVES NEXT TURN37%PROJECTED ROLETE1 · 13 startsSTRATEGY FIT94 / 100
IF YOU TAKE HIMTarget James Cook at your next turnASSISTANT PLAN →
ONE DRAFT NIGHT. EVERY PICK PRICED.

Would you pay $5
to win your league?

We cannot promise a title. We can give you a smarter decision at every turn— with a live terminal built to see what rankings miss.

OPEN THE LIVE DEMO →Draft-night access concept · no payment collected in this demo